A few words about the supposedly impending death of Blu-Ray ...

I started to read a story last week on Yahoo! Tech that had the subject line, "Is blu-ray the new laserdisc?" (find that story HERE) and I couldn't decide whether to be angry at the ignorance and the rush to judgment being shown here, or to panic at the possibility that the blogger could be right and I could say that I in fact owned two fully-functional dead format players (yes, my laserdisc player still works).

In my confusion, I turned to the source I've always trusted in regards to video formats these past few years, the site that convinced me a while back that Blu-Ray would triumph over HD-DVD and eventually be the home video format of choice for videophiles and casual buyers alike, The Digital Bits. And sure enough, their Editor-in-Chief, Bill Hunt, had read the Robin Harris ZDNet article around which the Yahoo! Tech blog was built around, and it set him off. What follows is Bill Hunt's editorial on the subject, and if you're reading this, please keep in mind that Bill Hunt and The Digital Bits have been covering this sort of thing since the dawn of DVD--they're well-connected in the multimedia world, theirs is a respected voice in terms of online journalism covering these subjects ... they know what they're talking about! So if you own a blu-ray player or a PS3 and you'd started to worry (as I admittedly did as a knee-jerk reaction), read this in take comfort in an informed and non-alarmist point of view:

As you may know, there have been a couple of recent reports online that the Blu-ray format is D.O.A. or otherwise doomed to failure. The most recent such proclamation is an alarmist piece by ZDNet's Robin Harris, that has resulted in a small flood of e-mails from readers today, some concerned, many skeptical and all curious as to our reaction.

Look, folks... let's have a little perspective here. People have been predicting the death of Blu-ray Disc for more than two years now. And many of those doing so were either staunch HD-DVD supporters previously or simply NEVER saw much of a future for Blu-ray or high-definition discs. Harris, it seems to me, falls into the latter category. He's a fine guy, I'm sure, but from what I've read of his work, he's never really been much of a videophile. He's a storage guy. Hard drives. It says so right there in his bio: "Robin Harris has been selling and marketing data storage for over 20 years in companies large and small." There's nothing wrong with that, and more power to him. But I don't expect him to be any kind of advocate for a home video format, other than one based around a downloading model. And he's hardly the person to best judge the future of what is, at its very essence, a HOME VIDEO FORMAT.

That's not to say that Harris doesn't make some valid points. The BDA's licensing fees are too high, and there are still too many barriers (not the least of which is cost) to smaller content producers adopting the format. I'll give you a few more obstacles the format faces: Blu-ray Disc player and movie prices are still too high. Studios should cut software prices across the board by $5 to $10. Profile 2.0 players should become standard and cheap, and fast. The need to continually update player firmware for title after title has been very frustrating, most recently with the James Bond Blu-rays. That's not a big deal if you have a PS3, but if you have a profile 1.0 or 1.1 player, it means either downloading and burning a firmware update disc, or calling the manufacturer's tech support line and requesting one be sent to you by mail. That's a pain in the ass, and the industry needs to figure out a way to make it easier. The economic slowdown and the lengthy format war haven't helped either. I do think the industry should take a look at Harris' recommendations for what a more "forward looking strategy" for the Blu-ray format ought to look like. I actually agree with a couple of them.

But let's get real here. Blu-ray is NOT dead. It's not close to death. It's not even remotely sick or ailing. Saying otherwise is simply a clever ploy to get a LOT of people to read your columns. Look folks, Blu-ray is still essentially a NEW format to most people. This is the format's FIRST YEAR of unopposed exposure to consumers - the first year it hasn't been embroiled in a bitter format dispute with HD-DVD. The standard DVD format didn't begin to really take off until well over a year after its Divx pay-per-view nemesis finally died. It's worth noting that my prediction has ALWAYS been that Blu-ray and DVD would co-exist for many years, and that Blu-ray would gradually increase its market share over time. If I had to guess, I think the mix a few years from now is going to be 50% DVD, 30-40% Blu-ray and some smaller percentage of downloading. Blu-ray isn't going to replace DVD, the single most successful format in the history of consumer electronics, and anyone who thinks otherwise is out to lunch. But Blu-ray's future is plenty bright, folks.

Let's look at this from another perspective. One month ago, Paramount's Iron Man became the first Blu-ray Disc release to sell 500,000 units in its first week of release. Industry sources tell me that the title has CONTINUED to sell well and is closing in on 1 million units sold. If Iron Man doesn't get there first, Warner's mega-smash hit The Dark Knight is on deck for release on Blu-ray Disc on 12/9. Does anyone think it isn't going to fly off the shelves too? Either way, by the end of the year (almost certainly by the end of January), one of these two titles - and quite possibly BOTH - could hit 1 million units sold. That milestone will have been reached just a little more than two years after the Blu-ray format was launched. Do you know how long it took DVD to have its first million selling title? Just under THREE years - The Matrix, which debuted on the format in late 1999. Seems like Blu-ray's right on track to me.

The format's got LOTS more going for it too. First, player prices are finally dipping below $250, right on track with the pace in the early days of DVD. Best Buy has its Insignia brand BD player priced at $249, and a Samsung player on sale for $229. Multiple retailers are expected to be selling Blu-ray players for LESS than $200 on Black Friday and for the holiday season. According to Video Business, Sears will be selling Sony's BDP-S350 for just $179.99 and Samsung's BD-P1500 for $199.99, both profile 2.0/BD-Live ready players. Look for other BD player deals at select retailers to follow, some as low as $149.

Second, look at all the great titles available! You know, earlier this year many of the studios were telling me that big titles were coming for the holidays, and that the floodgates were really going to open in 2009, but I STILL didn't expect the torrent of great titles we're seeing now. Consider the new releases alone... Transformers, Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, The Dark Knight, Cloverfield, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, Hancock, Wall-E, Sex and the City, Tropic Thunder, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Rambo, There Will Be Blood, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Kung Fu Panda, Casino Royale and many, many others.

Now consider the AMAZING catalog titles that have been (or will soon be) released on Blu-ray... SIX vintage James Bond films, ALL of the Austin Powers films, Sleeping Beauty, Blade Runner, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, The Godfather Collection, ALL of the Terminator films, Starship Troopers, all of the Planet of the Apes films, all of the Pirates of the Caribbean films, Casablanca, How the West Was Won, L.A. Confidential, JFK, all of The Matrix films, FIVE Stanley Kubrick films including 2001, The Nightmare Before Christmas, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, the Omen films, Bonnie and Clyde, the Die Hard films, ID4, the Mission: Impossible films, Dawn of the Dead, the Dirty Harry films, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, Superman and the Superman II: Director's Cut, the Spider-Man films and on, and on, and on.

In his piece, Harris claims there are few quirky indie films on the format. Has he not seen Transsiberian, Sukiyaki Western Django, Mongol, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Persepolis, Shinobi or any of the MANY such titles now available or coming soon? What about the documentary titles? Baraka, Planet Earth? The TV titles? Heroes, Lost, Sarah Connor Chronicles, Torchwood, Pushing Daisies, Band of Brothers?

You think all of those titles are impressive? Look at the tip of the iceberg of what's coming next year: The Star Trek films, Braveheart, Pinocchio, The Lord of the Rings films, King Kong (1933), The Wizard of Oz, Ben Hur, North by Northwest, the Ghostbusters films, Lawrence of Arabia, Gone with the Wind, the Rush Hour films, The French Connection, Napoleon Dynamite, Office Space, Raging Bull, Ronin, the new Battlestar Galactica TV series and HUNDREDS of others. That's just scratching the surface. There are titles that I KNOW FOR A FACT are in the works for release on Blu-ray in 2009 that will blow your minds, but I can't mention them by name yet. MAJOR catalog releases. For god's sake, folks... The Final Countdown is on Blu-ray! Are you kidding me?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

The question isn't, "Is Harris right?" The question is, "Is Harris even PAYING ATTENTION?" Of course not. He's fine guy... but he's A DATA STORAGE GUY. He's not a film guy. He's not a home video industry expert. Make no mistake, the Hollywood studios are 110% behind the Blu-ray Disc format, folks. So are the hardware manufacturers, and so are all the major retailers. They're going to blow the doors off this format in 2009 in terms of amazing releases. And watch for prices on hardware and software to get even more affordable in the coming year. Blu-ray is going to be around for quite a long while, I don't care what Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Robin Harris tell you. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO BE A MOVIE FAN. PERIOD.

Blu-ray is dead?! Yeah, right! And I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you.

As Charlie Brown might say, "Good grief..."